What do August Folsom home sales tell us about the market

The number of Folsom homes that went into escrow last month climbed again after a short July dip, according to the August 2011 home sales statistics just released by Trendgraphix—a real estate market research company—that provides, among other things, some detailed monthly data on real estate markets by zip code.

The number of homes that went pending, 116, continued (with the exception of July) an upward swing that started back in December 2012. That number represents a 111% increase over a year ago! And keeping in step with that was the number of homes that sold in August (72), up 44% from a year ago. The less good news is that the average price per square foot (down 6.8%) and the average sold price (down 14.5%) were both down from a year ago.

Here is a quick look at the August 2011 numbers for homes sold in Folsom:

·         Average price per square foot: $155

·         Average days on market: 80

·         Months' Inventory on sold: 2.4

·         Average Sold Price: $324K

·         Total homes sold: 72

Some good news for Folsom home buyers is that the inventory is up to 2.4 months after hitting a low of 1.8 three months ago, although that is still down 52% from a year ago.

I’ve included the graph showing the number of homes for sale, sold, and pended for each month from August 2010 to August 2011. These numbers are specifically for single family residences. Just drop me a line if you would like to see the numbers for a different kind of property (i.e., condo, lot, income property etc.), and I’ll get those to you, no obligation and with a smile!

That’s it for today’s wrap up of the Folsom real estate market numbers for August 2011. Interested in numbers for another zip code? Just let me know and I’ll send them offline.

all4now

Loan Modifications Continued to Outpace Foreclosures in 2nd Qtr.

It was about time for some good news! Hope Now--an alliance of counselors, mortgage companies, investors, and other mortgage market participants—reports that although foreclosures are up from March and April, loan modifications continued to outpace foreclosure sales during the second quarter. This is according to the latest report from loan servicers who participate in the Hope Now program. Also the number of mortgages with payments late by 60 days or more declined by 27 percent to 2.73 million.

By the numbers: Since 2007, 3.7 million homes have been sold through foreclosure and 4.7 million homeowners have received permanent loan modifications.

For more: Hope Now

all4now

Another day, another prediction on where home prices are going

Opened my Sacramento Bee this morning and saw this headline in the business section: "Sacramento area home prices expected to decline further before 2012 turnaround." Yesterday if you recall I mentioned a recent survey that saw a bottoming out of home prices in 2011. That article was at the national level so it's useful to see a region-specific forecast. Let's hope they are right that we are getting towards end of this real estate crash
You can find the Bee article here: http://tinyurl.com/44njdg2
all4now

Home prices will hit bottom this year, according to new poll

Some interesting news from MacroMarkets, which recently released a survey of 100 economists, real estate experts and investment strategists on where they thought the residential real estate market is going. The result: More than half of the  econ experts surveyed say they expect national home prices to hit bottom in 2011 and remain stable through 2015. This comes on the heels of a prediction at last month’s Pacific Cost Builders that a housing recovery would remain elusive until 2013 or beyond. And, almost two-thirds of those surveyed see the U.S. residential real estate market at an historic turning point, according to Robert Shiller, the co-founder and chief economist at MacroMarkets. Unfortunately no breakdown was provided on the expected home price changes in the next few years by region. As many of you know, the greater Sacramento region has been hit hard by the real estate crash. It would certainly be welcomed news for homeowners.

all4now

Were foreclosures the best deal around in Folsom in March?

Short answer is: Yes! A look at the market statistics found for home sales in Folsom this March 2011 does show that REOs or foreclosures were the best deal as far as price. These numbers come from Trendgraphix Inc. through our local multiple listing service, MetroList.

March 2011	Regular Sale	REO	Short Sale	All
No. homes sold	36	17	20	73
Median Price	$350K	$278K	$305K	$327K

       REO stands for Real Estate Owned—the term banks use to designate foreclosed properties.

As you can see, at a median sales price of $278,000, bank-owned properties were a good deal pricewise, and home buyers in Folsom did put a premium on homes that were not distressed sales—at a median price of  $350,000 . Such sales represented just over 50% of homes sold in Folsom in March. all4now

Why homes fell out of escrow in 2010

While perusing the Web site of the California Association of Realtors this morning, I came across the 2010-2011 economic forecast done by their chief economist and decided to take another quick look at it. One graph caught my eye: "Reasons why property fell out of escrow".

Here's the tally:

Property fell out of escrow because	2008	2009	2010
Buyer changed mind & decided not to buy	33%	37%	44%
Buyers couldn’t secure a mortgage	33%	41%	30%
Buyer couldn’t come up with down payment	11%	6%	5%
Seller decided not to sell	1%	0%	1%
Other	22%	22%	20%
Total	67%	68%	56%

Am surprised at the fact that nearing half of the escrows that fell apart did so because buyers changed their mind. Anyone have any thoughts on the reason for the buyers' change of heart? Nervousness about the economy maybe?

Number of homes in escrow in Folsom spiked upwards in February

Finally, what looks like (dare I say it) some good real estate news in Folsom: In February, 110 homes that had been for sale went into escrow. That's a 93% increase from December '09 and a 77.4% increase from February 2010. This spike continues an upward trend that started in January when 78 homes went pending (up from the 49 in December).

Here's the latest graph from Trendgraphix Inc.—a real estate market research company.



Other key numbers:

• 47 homes sold in Folsom in February, down 32.9% from Dec. 2009 but we should see that number going up when current pended homes close escrow.
• Median sales price in February: $336,000. That's down 3.7% from a year ago and down 12.7% from Dec. 2009
• Average price per square foot: $153, this is down from $177 a year ago.
• Average days on the market: 104. Homes are definitely taking longer to sell. Chalk that up to the number of listings that are short sales. A year ago, the average days on market was 86.
• Sold/Original Listing Price difference: 93%. No difference here from a year ago.

These numbers reflect properties sold by various member brokers of MetroList, our local multiple listing service.

If you'd like a breakdown of these numbers for regular sales versus short sales versus foreclosures, just drop me a line.

all4now

For a change, possible good news on the housing market from WSJ

We don’t get much good news on the housing market these days as far as homeowners are concerned. The past few years have seen steady declining equity. The market has been good for investors flocking back to the real estate market and first-time homebuyers—at least those who could navigate the mortgage waters to secure a loan. But otherwise it's been bleak.

But today, it was a hint of light at the end of the tunnel from The Wall Street Journal. In an article entitled “Why 2011 May Be the End of the Housing Crash” (reprinted in today’s SacBee Business section), author Simon Constable makes his case for why he believes we are nearing/or are at the bottom of the housing market. He also points to numbers that show that housing is the most affordable it’s been in decades.

I wish the article got into some regional analysis. Especially as we know that (in Sacramento, and even Folsom) we've been among the harder hit markets in the nation and struggling with economic recovery.

Based on the article the news seems to be: hang-in there for homeowners, and for buyers, it’s worth seriously considering buying or investing in real estate.

You can find the full article on WSJ’s web site.

all4now

January real estate statistics are in for Folsom market

The Folsom real estate statistics are in for January 2011. These numbers come from Trendgraphix Inc.—a real estate market research company. So let’s see what we have.

First, for the visually oriented, I’ve included the graph showing the number of homes for sale, sold, and pended for each month from January 2010 through January 2011. These numbers are specifically for single family residences. Just drop me a line if you would like to see the numbers for a different kind of property (i.e., condo, lot, income property etc.), and I’ll get those to you within 24 hours.

As you'll see in the graph above, in January, 231 homes were listed for sale in Folsom. This number includes foreclosures, short sales, and regular sales. That number is down slightly from the previous month and up 36.7% from January 2010. Some 45 homes were sold in January, down a 15.1% from January 2010. However, a huge uptick in the number of homes that went pending (i.e., went into escrow): 91, which is up 68.5% from January 2010.

Interesting to note that at 91 homes in escrow, that’s the highest number in at least a year. Could it be buyers are responding to the still low interest rates?

Quick January 2010 numbers in Folsom

Price per square foot: $161.60

Days on market: 77

Months' Inventory: 5.1

Average Sold Price: $343K

Because distressed properties are such a large component of the current market and have a significant impact on the numbers, I’m including a numbers breakdown by type of sale:

Type of Listing	REO	Short Sale	Regular Sale
# for sale	39	78	114
# new listings	21	37	42
# pended	22	42	27
# sold	13	11	21
Avg. sold price	304K	378K	350K
Sold/list Diff. %	99	99	97
Days on market	35	142	69

REO = Bank-owned property

That’s it for today’s wrap up of the Folsom market numbers for January. Please verify all information independently before making a decision on a home purchase.

Interested in numbers for another zip code? Just let me know and I’ll send them offline.

all4now

Shadow inventory of homes may take 4 years to clear

The latest from analysts at Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services is that it may take more than four years to clear the so-called “shadow inventory” of distressed homes that aren't yet on on the market. This could, S&P says, undermine real estate prices while the backlog clears.

“Shadow inventory” is defined as properties with borrowers who are 90 days or more delinquent on their mortgage payments, properties currently or recently in foreclosure, or properties that are real estate owned (REOs).

The estimate of how long the backlog would take to clear is up 11 percent from the previous quarter and up 40 percent from a year ago. What’s interesting according to the article I saw on this is that the increase in the estimated time needed to clear the shadow inventory is due to the fact that it’s taking longer for lender to liquidate distressed properties, not because the number of distressed properties is growing, the S&P analysts say.

The good news, says S&P, is that the overall level of distressed loans continues to decline, and that loan-cure success rates (most often the result of loan modifications) have been improving since the second half of 2008.

An interesting statistic from the article is that although some 45-50% of the loans modified or cured in the fourth quarter of 2009 re-defaulted within the first year of modification, that's an improvement from the nearly 80% re-default rate on loans modified or cured during the first quarter of 2008.

I wasn’t able to get the number for the greater Sacramento area but will post those if I can get them. all4now